2024 Elections: Analysts expect ANC’s support to drop below 50%

Unless something drastic happens before the 2024 elections, the ANC is expected to get 42% of the votes according to the latest poll by the Change Starts Now (CSN) political party, which commissioned an extensive baseline survey before the party was launched late last year.

The survey had a sample of 9,000 respondents who are registered voters who intend to vote, drawn in appropriate proportions from all provinces and across urban/rural areas. The Democratic Alliance (DA) is expected to get (19%), and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) stands at (16%).

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‘IF ANC LOSES MAJORITY, IT WILL STILL HAVE MOST SEATS IN PARLIAMENT’

According to a survey of 14 political analysts by Bloomberg, conducted between 26 January and 2 February, the ANC risks losing its majority in this year’s elections. But it should be able to form a governing coalition with smaller parties rather than having to enlist its main rivals, such as the DA or EFF.

“If the ANC had to lose an outright majority, it will still, more than likely, be the party with the largest percentage and the most number of seats in parliament. Who they would ask to join them would depend on how far away from an overall majority they are,” says Sanusha Naidu, an analyst at the Institute for Global Dialogue.

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ANALYSTS PREDICTIONS IN LINE WITH RECENT OPINION POLLS

While most analysts emphasized that campaigning is still at an early stage and the outlook could change as the vote draws nearer, their outcome predictions are broadly in line with several recent opinion polls.

“It is impossible to say at the moment what the percentage breakdown will be because a lot will be determined by how many voters turn out on election day,” says Zwelethu Jolobe, head of the University of Cape Town’s political studies department.

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‘WORST CASE SCENARIO, ANC DROPS TO 45% AND LIKELY TO PARTNER WITH IFP,’ SAYS ANALYST

Another analyst said the EFF, which was founded in 2013 by Julius Malema, a former leader of the ANC’s youth wing, would be in contention for a power-sharing deal should support for the ruling party drop significantly below 50%. 

“The worst case for the ANC would be if they drop to 45%. Then, they would have to invite one of the larger opposition parties to join them in government. The question is, who? I think it would probably be the Inkatha Freedom Party because both are nationalist in outlook, and their policies are broadly similar,” says Melanie Verwoerd, an independent analyst.

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