South African Reserve Bank reduces interest rate

South Africans in debt received positive news on Thursday as the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) monetary policy committee (MPC) decided to reduce the interest rate.

As was reported by The South African website, the MPC was widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) – and that’s exactly what the six-person committee elected to do.

“The SARB’s decision to trim interest rates by 25 bps was to be expected, considering South Africa’s still sluggish economic growth. While the repo and primary lending rates may have dropped, stimulating borrowing and investing, it may be perceived as a double-edged sword. Although it lends strength to the rand, the central bank’s decision raises concerns about bond repayments on a short to a long-term basis. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s readiness to cut interest rates, with some economists forecasting further downward rate adjustments throughout 2025, seems to have provided momentum to USDZAR. Traders must continue to exercise caution and closely watch the upcoming key economic releases”, said Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness, a global multi-asset brokerage firm.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, confirmed that the MPC discussed both a 25 basis point and a 50 basis point cut, but ultimately reached consensus on the former.

The repo rate now stands at 8% and the prime lending rate at 11.50%.

The MPC had hiked interest rates by 475 basis points since 2021, despite keeping the rate unchanged for the last seven meetings – until Thursday’s announcement.

That had represented a 15-year high (since 2009) and had several South Africans struggling to finance their debt.

What does a 25 basis point cut mean in monetary terms?

By way of an example (see graph below), prior to Thursday’s rate cut, a bond of R1 million over a standard 20-year term with repayments at prime (then 11.75%) would’ve cost R10 837 per month to finance.

Following the SARB’s decision to cut that prime lending rate to 11.50%, that now means a monthly bond repayment of R10 664.

That represents a monthly saving of R173.

Over the course of 20 years (240 months), that equates to a saving of R41 466 – on the assumption there are no further rate changes during that period.

But here are the really scary numbers!

To finance a R1 million bond over 20 years at the new prime lending rate does NOT cost R1 million. In fact, it will cost a staggering R2 559 360.

Do the sums yourself:

R10 664 x 240 months = R2 559 360.

But here’s the scariest part of all …

As highlighted above, the SARB had hiked interest rates by 475 basis points over the last 15 years, meaning in 2009 the prime lending rate stood at 7%.

The same calculation above on a R1 million bond at prime (7%) over 20 years once cost R7 753 per month.

That’s R2 911 less per month than it costs as of today.

Or … R698 640 over the course of the full 20 years if you prefer.

Monthly bond repayment table

The South African website’s table below compares the now old monthly bond repayments on various bond values over a 20-year period assuming no deposit and repayments at prime, to the new cost after Thursday’s 25 basis point cut and the monthly saving that entails:

SARB MPC MEETING DATES FOR 2024

The MPC meets every second month.

The SARB’s final meeting of the year will take place on Thursday, 21 November, where, according to experts, another 25 basis point cut is potentially on the cards.