Petrol and diesel: Early price forecast for March looks BAD

It’s still too early to accurately predict what lies ahead for diesel and petrol prices in South Africa in March, but the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) looks GRIM – although it has improved over the last few days.

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Mzansi motorists faced an unleaded petrol (both 93 and 95 octanes) increase of 28 cents a litre last week, while diesel was hiked by between one and nine cents a litre.

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Looking ahead, fluctuations in international product prices and rand weakness show the following under-recoveries (price increases) or over-recoveries (price decreases) for petrol and diesel as per data at 6 February 2023:

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If these market conditions were to remain constant for the rest of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand weakening and the oil price increasing – an increase of 122 cents is expected for 93 octane motorists and a increase of 117 cents for 95 users.

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Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something around a 54 cents increase per litre.

FUEL PRICE IN MZANSI IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:

1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices

2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products

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Exchange rate

At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R17.62/$.

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Oil price

At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $82.16 a barrel.

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The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed in the coming weeks with the new prices coming into effect at midnight on Tuesday, 28 February.

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Go easy on the accelerator until then, Mzansi.

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The current prices at the pumps (Inland and Coastal):

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