Kabelo Gwamanda could be heading to Parliament

City of Johannesburg mayor Kabelo Gwamanda could soon be heading to Parliament as an MP.

On the national candidates list released by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) made public on Tuesday, 26 March, Gwamanda is number three on the Al Jama-ah party list, behind fellow City of Johannesburg councillor Imraan Moosa (second).

Party founder and leader, Ganief Hendricks, who currently occupies the party’s single seat in the National Assembly, tops the Muslim-faith party’s list.

Tailing Gwamanda in fourth place on Al Jama-ah’s list, is the party’s spokesperson, advocate Shameemah Salie, with former Johannesburg mayor Thapelo Amad occupying 16th place.

The final list of candidates is due to be released by IEC on 10 April, after the electoral body has dealt with objections and disqualifications.

MAYOR KABELO GWAMANDA HEADING TO CAPE TOWN?

At the 2019 general elections, Al Jama-ah garnered 31,468 votes, a 0.18% share of total votes cast, which meant the party won their first-ever seat in the National Assembly since the organisation’s formation in 2007.

Since then, the party’s profile has risen immensely, with its councillor Amad becoming Johannesburg’s first Muslim mayor on 27 January 2023. When Amad resigned on 24 April 2023, it was fellow Al Jama-ah councillor Gwamanda’s turn to be the city’s first citizen.

So it is not inconceivable that Al Jama-ah could leverage their newfound visibility to get more votes and possibly two extra seats in Parliament. This means after 29 May, Gwamanda could ditch the Johannesburg’s mayoral chains to become a backbencher in Cape Town.

And Al Jama-ah could get an electoral boost, possibly at the expense of South Africa’s second-biggest political party: the Democratic Alliance (DA).

DA’S LOSS COULD BE A GAIN FOR PALESTINE-ALIGNED SA PARTIES

Political analyst Melanie Verwoerd believes the DA’s stance on the Palestine-Israel war could lead to them haemorrhaging the Muslim vote come 29 May, meaning Al Jama-ah could gain handsomely.

Verwoerd says with Western Cape being home to South Africa’s biggest Muslim population – 6.6% of the province’s total – other political parties, particularly Al Jama-ah, could take Muslim votes that could have gone to the DA. And as per Project on Middle East Political Science, Muslims account for approximately 2% of South Africa’s population. It is unclear how many of those are registered voters.

“That [DA’s support for Israel] leaves opportunities for other parties; the ANC will probably get some votes, and Al Jama-ah might get some. And the other parties as well,” Verwoerd said.

According to an editorial article in Business Day, the DA could face further Muslim backlash, especially after the resignation of its former MP Ghaleb Cachalia in January 2024. Cachalia, the son of anti-Apartheid activists Amina and Yusuf Cachalia, served as the DA’s deputy shadow minister of trade and industry.

@GhalebCachalia has resigned as member of the Democratic Alliance and as an MP. Cachalia was demoted as a shadow minister of public enterprises when he differed with the party on its stance in the Israeli-Palestine war.#MorningLive #SABCNews pic.twitter.com/OKGleMOos3

— SABCNews_MorningLive (@MorningLiveSABC) January 19, 2024