Is load shedding expected this summer?
Eskom’s enhanced generation performance indicates the potential for a load shedding-free summer in the coming months.
Eskom has indicated a strong likelihood of avoiding load shedding during the upcoming summer months, forecasting a stable power supply until 31 March 2025. This positive outlook is due to a notable improvement in the performance of its generation fleet, as the utility approaches 200 days without implementing rolling blackouts.
Generation fleet recovery improvements reduce load shedding risks
The Generation Operational Recovery Plan has proven critical to Eskom’s success in maintaining an uninterrupted energy supply. Eskom has gone 177 days without load shedding, mainly due to enhanced operational efficiencies.
“Operational efficiency has surpassed summer expectations, with unplanned outages averaging 12 800MW over the past seven days, compared to 15 800MW during the same period last year,” stated Eskom in a statement.
These improvements have been attributed to several factors, including a focus on accelerated maintenance, collaboration with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and the diligent efforts of power station managers and their teams.
Eskom emphasised the importance of this teamwork in Eskom’s recovery, stating that “The continued improvement in the generation fleet’s performance is attributed to the recovery plan, accelerated maintenance, collaboration with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and the dedication of power station managers and their teams.”
Significant reduction in diesel expenditure
Along with operational gains, Eskom has also achieved substantial savings in diesel expenditure. Between 1 April and 19 September, the power utility spent R4.83 billion on diesel for 716.4 GWh of electricity generation. This marks a 71% reduction in costs compared to last year when Eskom spent R16.75 billion to generate 2746.85 GWh.
The utility’s Open Cycle Gas Turbines, which play a crucial role in stabilising the grid, have been operating at lower costs due to this increased efficiency.
Positive outlook for energy availability
Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) averaged 60% over the past week, with certain stations such as Kusile, Grootvlei, and Lethabo exceeding 70% availability. In recent days, Eskom’s operational efficiency has continued to align with its summer targets, with unplanned outages varying between 11 900MW and 13 600MW.