Experts predict who will win the 2024 elections in SA

Will the ruling ANC lose its majority in this year’s elections? The 2024 elections will be a turning point for South Africa. Here are the predictions of political analysts about which party will win the SA elections this year.

ANC’S MAJORITY IS AT RISK

Bloomberg conducted a survey between January and February this year with political analysts participating. The results of this survey show that the ANC is expected to drop to 48%, from 57% five years ago.

The ANC has been in power since the white-minority rule came to an end in 1994. However, its reputation suffered greatly during Jacob Zuma’s tenure due to widespread corruption and the failure of government institutions. President Cyril Ramaphosa has failed to effectively tackle the widespread poverty, unemployment, crippling power outages, and corruption. Experts predict that this will have a significant impact on how much support the ANC will receive in the upcoming elections.

Contrarily, Ramaphosa has dismissed suggestions that the ANC will lose its majority. He said that those who predict that it will, don’t understand South African politics.

A new book by Oscar van Heerden published by Jacana Media will be in bookshops later this week. Van Heerden was an ANC insider who witnessed the ANC elective conference at NASREC in 2022 first-hand. In his book, he tells how political power changed hands and what was at stake as Ramaphosa battled to consolidate his power.

WHAT ARE THE EFF’S CHANCES?

According to BusinessLIVE, polls have shown an increase in the EFF’s support. However, analysts predict that this increase will not be enough to unseat the official opposition, the DA. Having said this, analysts predict that the EFF will move into the DA’s territory more than in the past.

According to a forecast published by Bloomberg, the EFF’s support will range between 16% and 19%. The party received 10.8% support in 2019.

WILL THE DA WIN THE SA ELECTIONS?

The DA predicted it can topple the ANC in this year’s election. The party said that it has a plan to end power cuts and turn the struggling economy around within five years if it does, according to Moneyweb.

Political economist and analyst Moeletsi Mbeki, former president Thabo Mbeki’s brother, thinks that the country’s struggles will continue long beyond the elections. He believes none of the political parties will bring about meaningful changes, according to Daily Maverick.

“Neither the ANC nor SA’s opposition parties offer solutions to the huge amount of poverty in the country, especially in the former homelands. They also have no solutions to the de-industrialisation of the country’s economy. None of the political parties has the policies or the capacity to solve the multitude of problems facing the country,” he said.

With this in mind, Mbeki predicts that a coalition government will be formed.

ALSO READ: Tshwane march for unemployed doctors will affect traffic