Estimation of the upcoming fuel prices

As South Africans start to feel some relief from inflation after the consumer price index (CPI) dropped to 4.7% in July, fuel costs are set to rise further.

Even though the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy won’t release the official gasoline and diesel prices until early next week, with the adjustments taking effect on 6 September, the month-end unaudited data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) gives us a good idea of what to anticipate.

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WHAT DOES THE CEF DATA INDICATE?

IOL reported, the CEF data indicates that the significant under-recovery for gasoline is pointing at increases of R1.65 for 95 Unleaded and R1.60 for 93 Unleaded, while increases for diesel are expected to range between R2.76 (50ppm) and R2.85 (500ppm).

Although this unverified data is typically a very accurate predictor of impending price revisions, keep in mind that the final prices could still differ, especially when elements like the Slate Levy, which pays fuel businesses for fluctuations in the price of oil during the month, are incorporated in.

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However, as of now and assuming the aforementioned forecasts are correct, South African drivers will spend R23.76 for a litre of 95 Unleaded gasoline along the coast and R24.48 in the interior starting in September, while the less expensive 93 Unleaded would potentially increase to roughly R24.03.

The anticipated increases to diesel prices would raise the wholesale price of 50ppm to a respective R22.58 and R23.29, and 500ppm to a price of about R22.34 along the coast and R23.06 inland.

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WHAT CAN YOU EXPECT TO PAY FOR FUEL IN SEPTEMBER?

Keep in mind that this does not include the retail margins, which, because diesel is deregulated, vary between locations but often hover around the R2 level. Therefore, starting in September, you can expect to pay about R24.58 along the coast and R25.30 inland for a litre of 50 ppm fuel.

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