Eskom says load shedding is probably returning this winter
Eskom has warned that load shedding might return in the winter. Many South Africans are predicting the blackouts to return after elections.
Eskom says even in the worst-case scenario, load shedding this winter should not reach Stage 6 outages, based on their projections.
South Africa has now gone without load shedding for a record-breaking 30 consecutive days as of Friday, which is the longest stretch so far this year.
The newly appointed Eskom CEO Dan Marokane provided a clear explanation for this suspension of load shedding. He said the energy availability factor has improved by 10 percentage points over the past year, from around 51% to 61% now.
“It’s been a good moment to reflect on,” said the Eskom CEO regarding load shedding as per Business Tech.
“We can begin to model what good looks like, and for our staff to yearn for more,” he said. “What has transpired here is a culmination of interventions started a year ago. It is important we build on this, and move towards doing it as routine.”
Despite no blackouts in weeks, Eskom warned that South Africans are not out of the woods yet. Marokane said the power utility expects load shedding mostly to be contained to Stage 2 in the coming months.
STAGE 2 LOAD SHEDDING TO HIT IN WINTER ACCORDING TO ESKOM CEO
“There is a considerable shift in the unreliability assumption for the winter 2024 forecast – a 1GW downward revision,” Eskom said. “Over the winter period, we are targeting a further 1.7GW from the reduction in unplanned losses (1.3GW) and driving demand management initiatives (382MW).”
We are not out of the woods yet, but the trend is encouraging,” Marokane added.
The Eskom CEO said the worst-case scenario of load shedding this winter would be Stage 5. With temperatures expected to drop in the coming weeks, South Africans can should brace for Stage 2.
ESKOM SAYS STAGE 5 WILL BE THE WORST CASE SCENERIO
According to Eskom, Stage 2 load shedding means that up to 2000MW of capacity needs to be shed. Consumers can expect to be shed up to 6 times over four days for two hours at a time, or 6 times over eight days for four hours at a time.
#LoadsheddingUpdate
— Eskom Hld SOC Ltd (@Eskom_SA) April 21, 2024
Sunday, 21 April 2024:
Loadshedding will remain suspended until further notice. This decision comes after 25 consecutive days of uninterrupted suspension.
The suspension of load shedding is attributed to the sustained generation capacity and adequate…
Eskom has suspended load shedding since 21 April and is now been over 30 days.
Addressing Eskom’s low energy availability factor (EAF), Eskom chair Mteto Nyati said EAF is currently around 61%. He said that the power utility missed the target of 65% by the end of March 2024 by just 4%.
South Africans have had an easier 30-plus days without load shedding but many are concerned about the winter.