Elections unlikely to change how SA is governed, says analyst
Frans Cronje, chairman of Social Research Foundation (SRF), says he expects the ANC to form a coalition with the EFF in governing SA.
This year’s elections, which are tipped to be the most competitive since the end of apartheid in 1994, are unlikely to change how South Africa is governed, says Frans Cronje, chairman of the Social Research Foundation (SRF).
He says that even if ANC loses its majority, policies may remain unchanged.
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ANC AND EFF COALITION? A BIG POSSIBILITY
The respected former chief executive of the Institute of Race Relations says he expects the ANC to form a coalition with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), which split from its ranks a decade ago and is currently the third-largest party.
“Should it choose to go into coalition with the EFF, that will not be the end of the world. It’ll just be a massive shock to sentiment and accelerate the trend line ANC support has been on for 15 years. It will be the midwife of a future centrist coalition government for South Africa,” he said.
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ANC AND EFF LEADERS SAY THEY WON’T WORK WITH EACH OTHER
Both parties’ leadership have sometimes said they won’t work with each other. However, South Africa would have the best chance of a prosperous and stable future if the two most prominent groups worked together.
Joblessness, crime, and regular power outages have eroded support for the ruling party, especially among younger, urban, and educated voters. But this and the mushrooming of new political parties in the run-up to the elections will not significantly dent support for the ruling party.
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KWAZULU NATAL AND GAUTENG KEY ELECTION BATTLEGROUNDS
According to surveys conducted by the SRF last year, the ANC won between 45% and 51% of the national vote, and the Democratic Alliance, the biggest opposition party, between 24% and 31%.
The SRF’s polling shows opposition parties are on course to secure control of Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, and the Western Cape — the three most economically essential provinces — and that the ANC will come close to losing the Northern Cape.