Elections 2024: Warnings of unrest and violence
Elections 2024 unrest and violence warnings have been communicated by various companies, including the SAPS.
Numerous organisations have warned South Africans of an increased risk of violence and unrest amidst the 2024 elections. These include the South African Police Service (SAPS), BMI, and Oxford Economics.
ELECTIONS 2024: WHAT MAKES THIS YEAR PARTICULARLY RISKY?
The 2024 general elections will take place this week on 29 May. It is the first time since the democracy that the ruling ANC political party is at risk of getting under 50% of the votes. Therefore, tensions are high and there is an increased risk of violence and unrest. Uncertainty linked to the outcome and the government post-election heightens the risk of violence and unrest in South Africa.
Earlier this month, the National Joint Operational and Intelligence Structure (NatJoints) said it will ramp up police visibility in high risk areas ahead of and during the elections, according to Business Tech. NatJoints comprises the SAPS, the South African National Defence Force (SANDF), and the State Security Agency (SSA).
WARNINGS PUT OUT
FirstRand Banking Group issued a medium-risk security notice of potential social unrest ahead of the 2024 elections. The warning was a routine risk assessment rather than a forecast. However, it highlighted potential protest actions by the MK Party (uMkhonto we Sizwe Party) linked to dissatisfaction over former President Zuma’s ineligibility. The memo circulated among FirstRand’s various operating entities, including First National Bank, WesBank, and Rand Merchant Bank.
Security group Fidelity also warned citizens of possible violence in KwaZulu-Natal because of the Constitutional Court’s decision to exclude Jacob Zuma from standing for office.
South Africa’s high inequality and social polarisation increase the country’s risk of protests and unrest. This is according to Oxford Economics’ senior political analyst, Louw Nel. The 2021 unrest in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng was a reminder of the risk a deterioration in the country’s security poses. Oxford Economics added that if the Multi-Party Charter (MPC) is elected, the risk of protests, trade union strikes, and unrest in South Africa will be higher.
GOVERNMENT’S STANCE ON THE MATTER
The South African government has assured citizens that the elections will be conducted in a safe and secure environment.
“As the government, we want to issue a stern warning to anyone with intentions to disrupt the elections that the law enforcement officers will deal with them decisively and will put them behind bars … political rights for citizens are guaranteed and should not be violated.”
Minister of Defence and Military Veterans Thandi Modise
Among these rights are the rights to freedom, security, and protection from violence from either public or private sources. She emphasised that no one has a right to intimidate and prevent others from exercising their constitutional right to vote for a party of their choice.
Click here to see a checklist for the upcoming elections.