Recurrence of El Nino Drought Conditions Warned Likely in South Africa

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has warned that the next summer has an increased likelihood of the development of El Nino conditions, which are often associated with drought and water scarcity – as has been suffered recently in South Africa.

SAWS’ Chief Forecaster, Dr Eugene Poolman, revealed the unwelcome news during his presentation to the National Disaster Management Advisory Forum (NDMAF) in Centurion on Wednesday.

Dr Poolman said although most parts of South Africa recently experienced above normal rainfall, SAWS’s forecasting showed the likelihood of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation phenomenon making a comeback in a few months time.

“Forecasting systems currently indicate an increased likelihood of an El Niño phase to develop towards the spring season. The likelihood has increased from previous assessments and as we near the winter period, these forecasts improve in reliability.

“At this stage it is still too early to predict its impact on the next summer season over Southern Africa,” said Dr Poolman. SAWS will continue monitoring the development of these conditions and  provide regular updates.

The Head of the National Disaster Management Centre (NDMC), who also chairs the Forum, Dr Mmaphaka Tau, echoed Dr Poolman’s sentiments: “We are not yet out of the woods. It is absolutely necessary that we continue applying risk reduction, mitigation planning and water conservation interventions.”

Dr Tau implored provincial disaster management heads to commit to a vigorous approach to Disaster Risk Reduction Planning that puts communities at the centre.

“We need to translate our plans into meaningful interventions that have a lasting impact on the people of South Africa. It’s important that we take our work seriously, remain accountable and put people first,” Dr Tau told the Forum.

The Forum is due to sit again on Thursday, 11 May 2017.

Source: SAnews.gov.za