Positive forecast for increases in SASSA grants until 2025

We are anticipating the SASSA grants for 2025 after Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s rather disappointing Mid-Term Budget Statement (MTBS) delivered last week on Wednesday, October 30, 2024. In it, the minister alluded to the fact there would be some ‘harsh truths’ in the February 2025 budget and the National Treasury would not be able ‘accommodate all demands on the fiscus’.

Experts are reading between the lines and believe welfare payments through the South African Social Security Agency might be what the minister is alluding to. According to Business Tech, the imbalance between the number of grant recipients (29 million) and taxpayers (7.5 million) is the big thorn in the side for 2025 SASSA grants.

2025 SASSA GRANTS

However, the real question South African residents who receive social grants want answered is: How much will 2025 SASSA grants increase by? According to Daily Investor, there is some encouraging news to share. Because social grants will cost the country R266 billion in the next financial year. The highest budget allocation ever. Or, to quantify it differently, 3.6% of South Africa’s GDP. Meanwhile, this financial year (2023/24) just R250 billion is coming out of taxpayer coffers for SASSA monies.

Moreover, after 2025 SASSA grants, funding from the National Treasury for social welfare actually decrease markedly towards 2027, as the list below explains:

• 2022/23: R233 billion
• 2023/24: R250 billion (6.8% increase)
• 2024/25: R266 billion (6.4% increase)
• 2025/26: R246 billion (7.5% decrease)
• 2026/27: R259 billion (6.9% increase)

HOW MUCH WILL GRANTS INCREASE BY?

Therefore, using how SASSA grants increased in 2024, and looking into our crystal ball for 2025 SASSA grants, this is what we believe might happen. Starting with SASSA ‘core’ grants first, across the board, we believe we’ll see an increase by 5% in April 2024. This is slightly more than this year’s 4.8%. However, it’s still not close to matching inflation. It could all breakdown like so:

• SASSA Old-Age Grants (aged 60 to 74) increase from R2 190 to R2 290 in April 2025. And again by R10 to R2 300 in October 2025.
• SASSA Old-Age Grants (75 and older) increase from R2 210 to R2 310 in April 2025. And again by R10 to R2 320 in October 2025.
• SASSA Disability and Childcare Dependency grants increase from R2 190 to R2 290 in April 2025. And again by R10 to R2 300 in October 2025.
• SASSA War Veterans increase from R2 190 to R2 290 in April 2025. And again by R10 to R2 300 in October 2025.

WHAT ABOUT SASSA CHILDCARE GRANTS?

While ‘core’ Older Person, Disability and War Veterans grants cost more, the agency’s childcare bill – spread across three types of grants – actually pays out to more: 65% of total grant expenditure. Therefore, here’s what we anticipate will happen to 2025 SASSA grants for parents taking care of minors:

• SASSA Child Support Grants will increase from R530 to R560 in April 2025. But not again in October 2025.
• SASSA Child Support Top-Up Grants will increase from R250 to R265 in April 2025. But not again in October 2025.
• SASSA Foster Care Grants will increase from R1 180 to R1 800 in April 2025. But not again in October 2025.
• SASSA Social Relief of Distress (SRD) will remain unchanged at R370 in 2025.

We reiterate that there has been no word from the agency on how much increases will be. However, based on the minister’s ‘reality check’ MTBS, we don’t expect more than a 5% increase for 2025 SASSA grants.

FUTURE OF SOCIAL RELIEF OF DISTRESS

The consensus from experts suggests the decrease in spending in 2025/26/27 will be because of a reduction in Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant beneficiaries. There is still no confirmation that SRD will be extended beyond March 2025. Even though it has been extended every year since 2020. Nevertheless, talk before the 2024 election of SRD morphing into a Universal Basic Income grant has also gone quiet since the formation of a Government of National Unity.

As generous and necessary as the R387-billion funding for old-age pensioners, child support and other welfare programs are, they are straining the national budget in ways that raise serious concerns about South Africa’s financial future. Over the next three years, the government has committed R1.17 trillion to social grants and welfare services.