OPINION: Springboks v France Rugby World Cup quarter-final – Who wins?

The Springboks v France Rugby World Cup quarter-final will end the tournament for one of the teams.

Who is the favourite to make it through to the semi-finals?

ALSO READ: Shocking Rugby World Cup quarter-final draw: ‘It’s a disgrace’

The pool draws were made three years ago. A long way out from the current tournament currently underway. This has resulted in a somewhat unbalanced journey through the playoff games to the knockout stages. There have been many questions about whether the result of this necessarily represents the current pecking order in World Rugby. 

When it comes to the journey through the tournament at Rugby World Cup 2023 for each team, it is simply a case of “it is what it is”.

Facing an equally strong team early in the knockouts instead of, for example, the final, is a fact and that team would have to be faced anyway.

There is something to be said for the possibility of teams facing three “finals” in a row, but there isn’t a comments section on the little gold plate that is affixed to the Webb Ellis Cup at the end.

The Springboks vs France quarter-final on Sunday will be an almighty clash between the reigning champions and the hosts.

ALSO READ: Rugby World Cup quarter-finals: Full fixtures, kick-off times

SPRINGBOKS V FRANCE STATS

The two teams have faced each other in 45 Tests.

The Springboks have won 27, France 12 and six were drawn.

The Springboks have scored a total of 965 points and France 692.

The Springboks boast a 61% win percentage against France.

On paper, the Springboks have a better-than-even chance of winning on Sunday. 

The reality though, is that rugby is played on grass and not paper. Statistics and records are history and not necessarily a guarantee of future results.

Statistics courtesy of SA Rugby Stats.

ALSO READ: Rassie backs ‘attacking, try-scoring’ Manie Libbok

THE BOOKIES’ TAKE

We decided to take a peek at three local betting services to get a feel for how they are comfortable investing their money.

1. At the time of writing, the first betting service was offering even odds, so they were finding it difficult to decide on a winner.

2. The second betting service also had the game even.

3. The third site had the Springboks as slight favourites.

ALSO READ: Rugby World Cup: Full quarter-final lineup, kickoff times

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FROM THE SPRINGBOKS VS FRANCE GAME?

This game is simply too close to call. What we can do is point out a few things that will have an impact on the game.

ALSO READ: Rassie pleased Springboks CAN wear green and gold kit

FRANCE

This France team does not blow as hot and cold as previous teams. It was often said before games “It depends which France team pitches up on the day”. Under head coach Fabien Galthié they have become much more structured and accurate, without sacrificing their natural flair.

When it comes to playing resources, this is a strong squad. Two examples of the world-class quality players they have at their disposal are winger Damian Penaud and number 8  Grégory Alldritt.

The return of captain and playmaker Antoine Dupont is a big boost for Les Bleus. He will inject a lot of confidence into this France squad as well as their supporters.

The France team does have the pack of forwards to take on the Springboks upfront to disrupt the Springboks strength.

ALSO READ: France coach warns Springboks to ‘watch out for ripped’ Dupont

SPRINGBOKS

The Springboks defence has been stingy during Rugby World Cup 2023 and they will rely on that against France. The biggest unknown is how they will use their playing resources 

Will Jacques Nienaber inject the returning Lukhanyo Am straight into the outside center position? How will he deploy his two flyhalves? Will he stick with Manie Libbok to make use of his playmaking skills or will he go with the more conservative Handre Pollard. 

THE AUTHOR’S GAMBLE

This writer is even more stingy than the Springboks defence and is more likely to keep his money in his pocket.

If forced, the gamble will be on France not changing their well-rounded game with Dupont being the general. 

The Springboks are likely to revert to their well-rehearsed and suffocating tournament play. Worldwide sentiment toward this way of playing the game is negative. What is different this time around is that the Springboks have even more attacking threats than they had back in the 2019 Rugby World Cup final. Chasing the game if they need to is well within this squad.

And then there is the “Bomb Squad“.

Although the Springboks bench remains a discussion point it is a real factor in forward dominance, especially in the second half.

It could still be down to the bounce of the ball though…

ALSO READ: Rassie explains the decision to delay naming the Springboks team

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