Rassie Erasmus: I’d rather be us than Ireland!

In what was undoubtedly the game of the World Cup so far, Ireland clinched a hard-fought win over the Springboks last month to put themselves in pole position to finish at the summit Pool B.

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It means Ireland are likely to face the All Blacks in the quarter-finals, while the Springboks are most likely to finish second in the pool, and then play France in the first round of the playoffs.

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However, there are as many as 20 different qualification scenarios that could play out this weekend, with Ireland and Scotland going head to head, while the Springboks have a ‘bye’.

The Springboks have 15 log points after four games, while Ireland and Scotland – who face off in what will be a pool decider on Saturday – are on 14 and 10 points respectively.

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RASSIE ERASMUS EXPLAINED A SERIES OF PERMUTATIONS THAT COULD COME INTO PLAY BETWEEN IRELAND AND SCOTLAND

“If Scotland beat Ireland by eight points or more and Ireland don’t get a bonus point, then Ireland are out,” said Erasmus. “Then, if all three teams finish on 15 log points, the team with the best points difference will go through.

“If Scotland have the best points difference, then we’ll fall out because Ireland defeated us, but for that to happen Scotland must score four tries and beat Ireland by more than 20 points, and Ireland must also get a bonus point.

“On the other hand, if Ireland have the best points difference, then we’ll go through because we defeated Scotland.”

Erasmus added: “From our point of view, we did what we had to do to go through, and we now have time to prepare for the different possible scenarios. Some of us will prepare for the All Blacks, and others for France.

“But France and Italy still have to play, so we’ll have guys preparing for Italy as well. Italy in particular are used to facing the northern hemisphere teams, so there are still interesting permutations in the competition.”

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BOKS HAPPY WITH WHERE THEY STAND

The Springboks will now have to wait until the weekend for the picture to clarify on the next stage of the tournament.

“The big thing for us was to win the game and we earned five league points and manged to get a proper points difference, which gives us a chance to finish first or second in the pool,” said Erasmus.

“There’s also a small mathematical chance that we could fall out. But to get close to 50 points was our goal, and we knew that with rotating our squad, there would be times when things would be stop-start in the game.”

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Both quarter-final places are still to be decided:

• Scotland must beat Ireland and deny the Irish a bonus point to finish second on the head-to-head rule with South Africa topping the pool.
• If Ireland get a bonus point and Scotland do not, Ireland will top the pool on the head-to-head rule from South Africa.
• A Scotland bonus-point win without Ireland getting anything from the game will see them qualify in second place behind South Africa. The Springboks would finish top on the head-to-head rule.
• If Scotland win and both teams get a bonus point, then they join South Africa on 15 points and points difference will determine top spot in Pool B.
• Scotland must win by 21 points or more to claim top spot ahead of South Africa (South Africa +117, Ireland +122 and Scotland +97). Ireland would then qualify as runners-up on the head-to-head rule, having beaten South Africa. If Scotland do not win by such a margin, then South Africa will finish top on points difference and Scotland second on the head-to-head rule.
• Ireland will guarantee top spot if they secure two points from their match against Scotland.

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